The Hard Generalization: A Radical New Approach to the Science of Prediction

Introduction

In "The Hard Generalization," Leonardo Mello e Silva argues that the scientific method is broken. He claims that the current focus on hypothesis testing and statistical significance has led to a culture of risk aversion and incrementalism, which stifles creativity and innovation. Mello e Silva proposes a new approach to science, one that emphasizes the importance of hard generalizations - bold, sweeping statements that can be used to predict the future.

The Problem with Hypothesis Testing

Hypothesis testing is the traditional method of scientific inquiry. In hypothesis testing, scientists start with a hypothesis, or a tentative explanation for a phenomenon. They then collect data to test the hypothesis, and if the data does not support the hypothesis, they reject it.

Mello e Silva argues that hypothesis testing is too conservative. It is designed to minimize the risk of making a false positive error, or rejecting a true hypothesis. However, this conservatism comes at a price. It also makes it difficult to make bold, new discoveries.

The Power of Hard Generalizations

Hard generalizations are bold, sweeping statements that can be used to predict the future. They are not based on a single study or experiment, but on a wide range of evidence. Hard generalizations are often controversial, but they can also be very powerful.

Mello e Silva gives several examples of hard generalizations that have changed the world. For example, the theory of gravity, the germ theory of disease, and the theory of evolution are all hard generalizations that have had a profound impact on our understanding of the world.

A New Approach to Science

Mello e Silva proposes a new approach to science that emphasizes the importance of hard generalizations. He argues that scientists should be more willing to make bold, new claims, even if they are not immediately supported by the data. He also argues that scientists should be more open to criticism and willing to change their minds when new evidence emerges.

Mello e Silva's approach to science is not without its critics. Some argue that it is too risky and that it could lead to more false positives. However, Mello e Silva argues that the potential rewards of hard generalizations outweigh the risks.

Conclusion

"The Hard Generalization" is a provocative and challenging book that offers a new way of thinking about science. Mello e Silva argues that the current focus on hypothesis testing and statistical significance has led to a culture of risk aversion and incrementalism, which stifles creativity and innovation. He proposes a new approach to science, one that emphasizes the importance of hard generalizations - bold, sweeping statements that can be used to predict the future.

"The Hard Generalization" is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of science. It is a book that will challenge your assumptions and inspire you to think differently about the world.